WTPZ44 KNHC 251433 RRA

TCDEP4



TROPICAL STORM DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042017

1000 AM CDT SUN JUN 25 2017



DORA'S CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED, WITH

MORE DISTINCT CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES DEVELOPING.  THE CURRENT

INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS SET AT 45 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH A DVORAK

CLASSIFICATION OF T3.0 FROM TAFB.  THE DYNAMICAL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD

REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION, WITH

UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE STORM AND LOW VERTICAL SHEAR

FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER,

SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY IN 48 HOURS OR SO, WHICH

WILL HALT THE STRENGTHENING TREND.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST

IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT

DORA COULD STRENGTHEN MORE THAN INDICATED HERE IN THE SHORT TERM,

GIVEN THAT THE SHIPS RII SHOWS AN ABOVE NORMAL PROBABILITY OF RAPID

INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.



THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/10 KT.  A WELL-DEFINED

MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE TO THE NORTH

OF DORA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN A

WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, AND THE

TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED FOR THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS.

LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE WEAKENING AND INCREASINGLY SHALLOW

CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO TURN WESTWARD FOLLOWING THE LOW-LEVEL STEERING

FLOW.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE

PREVIOUS ONE.



ALTHOUGH DORA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OFFSHORE, THE OUTER BANDS OF THE

TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF