WTPZ44 KNHC 250838 RRA

TCDEP4



TROPICAL STORM DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042017

400 AM CDT SUN JUN 25 2017



SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS BEEN

INTENSIFYING. THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN

INCREASING WITH MORE BANDING FEATURES NOTED THAN LATE YESTERDAY.

MICROWAVE AND CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE DATA ALSO SUGGEST THAT SOME

PRIMITIVE INNER-CORE FEATURES HAVE DEVELOPED. BASED ON THE

INCREASED CENTRAL ORGANIZATION AND A DVORAK CLASSIFICATION OF 2.5

FROM TAFB, THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET TO 35 KT.



THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS ENVIRONMENTAL IMPEDIMENTS TO FURTHER

STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH LOW SHEAR, HIGH

MID-LEVEL MOISTURE, AND WARM SSTS IN THE FORECAST. GUIDANCE IS IN

GOOD AGREEMENT ON STEADY INTENSIFICATION, AND DORA COULD BECOME A

HURRICANE IN A DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER, DORA SHOULD MOVE ACROSS MUCH

COOLER SSTS AND INTO A MORE DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS, CAUSING THE

CYCLONE TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4. THE

LATEST NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A BIT UPWARD IN AGREEMENT

WITH THE HWRF, SHIPS AND NOAA CORRECTED-CONSENSUS MODELS.



THE INITIAL MOTION IS WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT. A

LARGE MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD

CONTINUE TO STEER DORA ON THIS GENERAL COURSE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE

OF DAYS. THE STORM WILL LIKELY TAKE A WESTWARD TURN BY MIDWEEK ONCE

THE CYCLONE WEAKENS AND BECOMES MORE STEERED BY THE LOWER-LEVEL

WINDS. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS TRACK,

RESULTING IN HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT DORA WILL MOVE PARALLEL TO THE

COAST OF MEXICO, KEEPING THE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS OFFSHORE.