WTPZ42 KNHC 311445 RRA

TCDEP2



TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022017

1000 AM CDT WED MAY 31 2017



THE LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO,

HAS DEVELOPED MULTIPLE BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION, AND VARIOUS

SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST THE SYSTEM HAS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION.

BASED ON THESE, THE SYSTEM IS DESIGNATED AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION

TWO-E.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KT IS BASED ON CURRENT

SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ALONG WITH EARLIER

SCATTEROMETER DATA.



THE INITIAL MOTION IS 035/3.  A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SEEN IN

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER NORTHERN MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO STEER THE

CYCLONE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 36 H OR SO.  AFTER

THAT, THERE IS SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE.  THE

GFS, CANADIAN, AND HWRF MODELS MOVE THE CYCLONE INLAND OVER

SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO IN 48-60 H, WHILE THE ECMWF AND UKMET SHOW THE

SYSTEM STALLING OVER THE PACIFIC AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS

TO THE NORTH.  THE LATTER PART OF THE TRACK FORECAST SOMEWHAT

SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS, SHOWING THE

CYCLONE REMAINING OVER THE PACIFIC BUT CLOSER TO THE COAST OF

MEXICO THAN FORECAST BY THE ECMWF AND UKMET.



THE DEPRESSION IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF 10-15 KT OF SOUTHERLY

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGESTS THAT THIS

CONDITION SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 36-48 H.  AFTER THAT, WHILE

THE SHEAR MAY DECREASE THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO

THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO TO INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT.  THE

INTENSITY FORECAST, WHICH LIES NEAR THE UPPER EDGE OF THE INTENSITY=