WTIO31 PGTW 290300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (MORA) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (MORA) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 290000Z --- NEAR 17.0N 90.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.0N 90.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 18.7N 91.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 21.1N 91.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 24.0N 91.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 310000Z --- 26.5N 92.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 290300Z POSITION NEAR 17.4N 90.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (MORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 322 NM SOUTH OF CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION PRESENT OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE, THE RESULT OF EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). A 290007Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE, SHOWS OVERALL IMPROVED STRUCTURE WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A CONSOLIDATING LLCC AND LENDS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS, IS HEDGED BETWEEN MULTIAGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.0 TO T3.5 (45 TO 55 KNOTS). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW OFFSETTING MODERATE VWS (15-20 KNOTS). ADDITIONALLY, THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING THROUGH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 TO 30 C) AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES. TC 02B IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST ASIA. AFTER TAU 36 THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK MORE EASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER INTENSIFY, REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL NEAR CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH AFTER TAU 24. ONCE TC 02B MAKES LANDFALL, IT WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND FULLY DISSIPATE BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290900Z, 291500Z, 292100Z AND 300300Z.//