WTIO31 PGTW 282100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (TWO) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (TWO) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 281800Z --- NEAR 16.3N 91.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.3N 91.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 17.9N 91.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 20.0N 91.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 22.6N 91.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 25.4N 92.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 282100Z POSITION NEAR 16.7N 91.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 363 NM SOUTH OF CHITTAGONG, HAS TRACKED AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION PRESENT OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE, THE RESULT OF MODERATE (15-20 KTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). A 281530Z AMSU 89GHZ IMAGE, SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A BROAD LLCC AND LENDS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 40 KNOTS, IS HEDGED ABOVE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 2.5 (35 KNOTS) AND BELOW THE SATCON ESTIMATE OF 54 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WHERE MODERATE VWS IS OFFSET BY STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALONG WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. TC 02B IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST OVER SOUTHEAST ASIA. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SAME RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER INTENSIFY REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL AROUND TAU 36. ONCE TC 02B MAKES LANDFALL, IT WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND FULLY DISSIPATE BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN STRONG AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290300Z, 290900Z, 291500Z AND 292100Z.//