WTIO31 PGTW 280900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (TWO) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (TWO) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 280600Z --- NEAR 14.8N 90.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.8N 90.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 16.0N 91.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 17.6N 91.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 19.7N 91.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 22.3N 91.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z --- 27.1N 93.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 280900Z POSITION NEAR 15.1N 90.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02B (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 457 NM SOUTH OF CHITTAGONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE LOW- LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DUE TO MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). A 280336Z METOP-B 89 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDING ELSEWHERE. OVERALL, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH THE VWS OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW IN ADDITION TO WARM SST (30-31C) AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES. TC 02B HAS TURNED NORTHEASTWARD AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE ENTRENCHED OVER SOUTHEAST ASIA. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK. TC 02B IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AND SHOULD REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL OVER BANGLADESH BY TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS INLAND AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY TAU 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 281500Z, 282100Z, 290300Z AND 290900Z.//