WTIO31 PGTW 272100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (TWO) WARNING NR 001// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/271421ZMAY2017// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (TWO) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 271800Z --- NEAR 14.0N 88.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 14.0N 88.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 14.7N 89.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 15.7N 90.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 17.4N 90.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 19.5N 91.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 24.8N 92.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 272100Z POSITION NEAR 14.2N 88.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 516 NM SOUTH OF CALCUTTA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KTS) AND A 271504Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING 30 KNOT WINDS IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE ASCAT IMAGE IS ALSO THE BASIS FOR THE INITIAL POSITION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH AN EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL THAT IS FEEDING INTO A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH, MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES (15-20KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C). 02B WILL TRACK TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE WEST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS PRIOR TO LANDFALL. TC 02B IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AFTER TAU 48 AND RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INLAND. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z, 280900Z, 281500Z AND 282100Z. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 271430).//