WTPZ41 KNHC 101431 RRA

TCDEP1



TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012017

1000 AM CDT WED MAY 10 2017



ADRIAN'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS LESS ORGANIZED THAN YESTERDAY,

WITH LITTLE EVIDENCE OF CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES ALONG WITH A

FEW BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE

ESTIMATED CENTER.  VERTICAL CROSS-SECTIONS THROUGH THE LATEST GFS

MODEL ANALYSIS INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT TILT OF THE VORTEX FROM

SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST WITH HEIGHT.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH

ANALYSES FROM UW-CIMSS THAT SHOW AROUND 20-25 KT OF MID-LEVEL

SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR ACROSS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THIS DISRUPTION

OF THE VERTICAL COHERENCY OF THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY ONE OF THE REASONS

THAT ADRIAN HAS NOT STRENGTHENED MUCH.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS

HELD AT 40 KT BASED ON EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA, ALTHOUGH THE

LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES AND THE DISORGANIZED CLOUD PATTERN SUGGEST

IT MIGHT BE A LITTLE WEAKER.  THE GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT CALL FOR

ADRIAN TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, BUT THE

STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL MODELS STILL SHOW THE SYSTEM BECOMING A

HURRICANE WITHIN 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A

LITTLE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND CLOSE TO THE LATEST SHIPS

PREDICTION, AND IS OF LOW CONFIDENCE.



EVEN WITH HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGERY, THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT

TO LOCATE.  BASED MAINLY ON MICROWAVE AND SCATTEROMETER FIXES, THE

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 315/6 KT.  A MID-LEVEL

RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ADRIAN SHOULD INDUCE A NORTHWESTWARD TO

WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  LATER IN THE

FORECAST PERIOD, THE RIDGE IS PREDICTED TO COLLAPSE, LEAVING THE=