WTPS32 PGTW 140300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA) WARNING NR 011// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 140000Z --- NEAR 12.9S 179.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.9S 179.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 12.8S 178.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 12.9S 176.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 13.2S 174.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 140300Z POSITION NEAR 12.9S 179.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (ELLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 316 NM NORTH- NORTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED AS EVIDENCED BY WARMED AND UNRAVELING CENTRAL CONVECTION THAT REMAINS SHEARED FROM THE CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI LOOP AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE PASSES IDENTIFYING A DEFINED LOW REFLECTIVITY CIRCULATION FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND SATCON DVORAK ESTIMATES AND ON A 132135Z ASCAT PASS AND REFLECTS THE WEAKENING TREND. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK OUTFLOW. THESE FACTORS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE TC 19P, LEADING TO ITS DISSIPATION BY TAU 36, POSSIBLY SOONER. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LEADING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z AND 150300Z.//