WTPS32 PGTW 131500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA) WARNING NR 010// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 131200Z --- NEAR 13.8S 179.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.8S 179.5W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 13.9S 179.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 13.7S 177.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 13.5S 175.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 13.4S 173.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 13.6S 169.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 131500Z POSITION NEAR 13.8S 179.8W. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM NORTH- NORTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DETERIORATING SYSTEM WITH WARMING CLOUD TOPS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON RECENT AGENCY SATELLITE FIXES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY CURRENT INTENSITY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T 3.5 (55 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE DETERIORATED IN THE UPPER-LEVELS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS LEADING TO THE DECLINING INTENSITY. HOWEVER WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED AN APPROACHING TROUGH SEEMS TO HAVE STABILIZED. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MARGINAL TO UNFAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER, HIGH WIND SHEAR FROM THE WESTERLY JET WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE TRACK PHILOSOPHY WITH THE FORECAST TRACK PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z AND 141500Z.//