WTPS32 PGTW 100300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA) WARNING NR 003 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 100000Z --- NEAR 14.8S 174.4W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S 174.4W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 14.9S 175.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 15.2S 177.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 15.8S 178.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 16.2S 179.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 16.2S 179.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 15.5S 178.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 100300Z POSITION NEAR 14.8S 174.8W. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 217 NM WEST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SYSTEM WHICH HAS BECOME LESS WELL DEFINED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH A DISORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANALYSIS OF A 2118Z ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATING A WEAKLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON ANALYSIS OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED ASCAT DATA SHOWING A FEW 40 KNOT WINDS SOUTH OF THE LLCC AS WELL AS MULTI- AGENCY CURRENT INTENSITY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.5 TO T3.0 (35 TO 45 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS A MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SSTS NEAR 29 CELSIUS AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) VALUES OF 15-20 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM HAS STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, HOWEVER STRONG WESTERLY MID-LATITUDE FLOW TO THE SOUTH IS RESTRICTING POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND EXHAUST OF TC ELLA ON THE POLEWARD SIDE. TC ELLA IS TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AND THE FORECAST IS FOR ONLY SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION, REACHING PEAK INTENSITY BY TAU 24. THEREAFTER, TC ELLA IS FORECAST TO BEGIN WEAKENING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING VWS AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. BY TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME NEARLY QUASI-STATIONARY AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH THE REMAINING LLCC TRACKING WEST- NORTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND DISSIPATING BY TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, WITH A BIFURCATION OCCURRING BEYOND THIS POINT. NAVGEM AND GFDN ARE THE SOUTHERN OUTLIERS, AND INDICATE A POSSIBLE ALTERNATE SCENARIO OF A TRACK SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AFTER TAU 72. THE REMAINDER OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS TAKE THE OPPOSITE TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TRACK TOWARDS WEST-SOUTHWEST AND THEN TURING NORTHWEST IN THE LATER TAUS. DUE TO THE HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY AND THE BIFURCATION, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z AND 110300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (DONNA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//