WTPS32 PGTW 091500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA) WARNING NR 002 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 091200Z --- NEAR 14.9S 173.2W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S 173.2W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 14.8S 174.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 15.0S 176.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 15.3S 178.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 15.7S 179.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 16.3S 180.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 01 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 16.5S 179.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 16.7S 179.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 091500Z POSITION NEAR 14.9S 173.6W. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM WEST- SOUTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A NOTCH FEATURE OBSERVED IN A 091226Z GMI 37 GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AVERAGING MULTI-AGENCY CURRENT INTENSITY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.5 TO T3.5 (35 TO 55 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SSTS NEAR 29 CELSIUS AND RELATIVELY LOW WIND SHEAR BEING OFFSET BY RESTRICTED OUTFLOW ALOFT. A NOTABLE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS PRESENT, HOWEVER OUTFLOW FROM 18P (DONNA) AND WESTERLY FLOW RELATED TO A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH IS IMPEDING THE EXHAUST OF TC ELLA ON THE WESTERN AND POLEWARD PERIPHERIES. CURRENTLY TC ELLA IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG AN EXTENSION OF A BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL WITH SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TO 50 KNOTS. AROUND TAU 72 A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ERODING THE STEERING RIDGE AND INDUCING A HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. QUASI-STATIONARY MOVEMENT AND RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME WITH THE TRACK SHIFTING SOUTHWARD INTO THE APPROACHING TROUGH. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS GENERAL AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS BUT DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY THEREAFTER AS THE PRIMARY STEERING RIDGE WEAKENS. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z AND 101500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (DONNA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//