WTPS31 PGTW 100900

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (DONNA) WARNING NR 025//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (DONNA) WARNING NR 025

   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   100600Z --- NEAR 22.9S 168.0E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 15 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 22.9S 168.0E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   101800Z --- 25.6S 168.7E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

    ---

REMARKS:

100900Z POSITION NEAR 23.6S 168.2E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (DONNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 116 NM EAST-

SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 15

KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE

IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ELONGATED AND RAPIDLY DETERIORATING FULLY EXPOSED

LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH

HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MENTIONED SATELLITE IMAGERY. AGENCY

DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE COME DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE LAST

TWELVE HOURS AND A RECENT T2.5 (35 KNOTS) ESTIMATE COMBINED WITH

LOCAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MARE ISLAND IS THE BASIS FOR THE

INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 35 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS

HAVE DETERIORATED SIGNIFICANTLY AND TC DONNA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN

FURTHER WHILE TRACKING SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THIS IS THE

FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL

HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF

REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 12 FEET.

REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-

HOURLY UPDATES.//