WTPS31 PGTW 022100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 001// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/012051ZMAY2017// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 021800Z --- NEAR 13.0S 171.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.0S 171.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 13.1S 172.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 13.1S 171.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 13.1S 170.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 13.2S 169.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 14.0S 167.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 15.1S 167.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 17.0S 168.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 022100Z POSITION NEAR 13.0S 172.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (EIGHTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 484 NM NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH FORMATIVE BANDING SHOWING RAPID CONSOLIDATION OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM A LOW REFLECTIVITY FEATURE OBSERVED IN A 021521Z 89 GHZ GMI IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF AVAILABLE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.5 TO T3.0 (35 TO 45 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SUGGESTS VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH SSTS NEAR 30 CELSIUS AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT RELATIVELY HIGH. A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH IS PROVIDING EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LOW. CURRENTLY TC 18P IS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGES TO THE NORTHEAST AND WEST COMPETING FOR STEERING. A QUASI-STATIONARY TRACK IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED WHILE OVER THE WARM WATER. AS THE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH PASSES THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, RIDGING WILL BUILD IN TO THE SOUTH ACCELERATING THE SYSTEM WESTWARD AROUND TAU 36. ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST AROUND TAU 72 PROVIDING ANOTHER PERIOD OF ENHANCED EXHAUST IN THE UPPER LEVELS. PEAK INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO REACH 110 KNOTS BY TAU 96 AS THE SYSTEM ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS TURNING SOUTHWARD. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN POSSIBLE TRACK MOTION DUE TO THE NEAR-TERM COMPLEX STEERING SCENARIO. OVERALL, EACH SOLUTION SHOWS AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK PHILOSOPHY BUT VARIES IN THE EXACT POSITION AND TIMING OF THE TURNS. DUE TO THE COMPLEX MOTION OF THE SYSTEM, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z AND 032100Z. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 012100).//