WTXS31 PGTW 290300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (FRANCES) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (FRANCES) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 290000Z --- NEAR 12.8S 123.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.8S 123.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 13.5S 123.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 14.0S 122.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 14.3S 121.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 14.4S 121.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 14.2S 119.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 290300Z POSITION NEAR 13.0S 123.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (FRANCES), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 795 NM NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A VERY COMPACT SYSTEM WITH WARMING CLOUD TOPS STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN ITS STRUCTURE AND INTENSITY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 282202Z 91GHZ SSMIS IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A PINHOLE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 70 KNOTS IS BASED ON SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.0 TO T4.5 (65 TO 77) KNOTS. THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT IS GENERALLY FAVORABLE WITH WARM SSTS NEAR 29 CELSIUS, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND AN EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. CURRENTLY TC FRANCES IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE POSITIONED OVER AUSTRALIA. AN APPROACHING TROUGH IS FORECASTED TO WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS RESULTING IN MUCH SLOWER AND POTENTIALLY SOMEWHAT ERRATIC TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, BUT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS UNLIKELY SINCE THE SYSTEM IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY AFTER TAU 12 AS THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND UPPER-LEVEL JET INTRODUCES HIGH WIND SHEAR. TC FRANCES WILL DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SLIGHT BIFURCATION WITH COAMPS-TC, GFS, AND NAVGEM SHOWING A SUDDEN TURN TO THE SOUTH AS THE STEERING RIDGE RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST, EVENTUALLY TURNING THE SYSTEM WESTWARD AGAIN BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL. THE REST OF THE GROUP, TO INCLUDE ECMFW AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE, SHOW A MORE WESTWARD TRACK SIMILAR TO THE FORECAST TRACK. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DOMINANT STEERING RIDGE THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z AND 300300Z.//