WTIO51 PGTW 152100 WARNING ATCG MIL 01B NIO 170415191251 2017041518 01B ONE 002 01 045 15 SATL 020 T000 153N 0913E 045 R034 090 NE QD 055 SE QD 060 SW QD 075 NW QD T012 172N 0929E 050 R050 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 085 SE QD 075 SW QD 080 NW QD T024 188N 0944E 035 R034 035 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD T036 203N 0957E 025 AMP 024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND 036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE) WARNING NR 002 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 151800Z --- NEAR 15.3N 91.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.3N 91.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 17.2N 92.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 18.8N 94.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 20.3N 95.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 152100Z POSITION NEAR 15.8N 91.7E. TROPICAL (TC) CYCLONE 01B (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM WEST- SOUTHWEST OF YANGON, BURMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS SLIGHTLY DEEPENED EVEN AS THE NORTHERN PORTION BEGINS TO SHOW STRETCHING AND ELONGATION - A SIGN OF INCREASING SHEAR. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A LOW REFLECTIVITY CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 151519Z AMSU MICROWAVE PASS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, THE VWS, FOR NOW, IS OFFSET BY A STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW AND A STORM MOTION THAT IS IN-PHASE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW. ADDITIONALLY, ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXCEPTIONALLY WARM AT OVER 30 CELSIUS. TC 01B IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS BURMA, MAKING LANDFALL NEAR TOUNGUP SHORTLY BEFORE TAU 24. THE SYSTEM WILL PEAK AT 50 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE VWS AND LAND INTERACTION PREVAIL AND ERODE THEN FINALLY DISSIPATE IT BY TAU 36. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z, 160900Z, 161500Z AND 162100Z.// 0117041306 63N 853E 20 0117041312 71N 857E 20 0117041318 80N 858E 25 0117041400 89N 858E 25 0117041406 99N 864E 25 0117041412 109N 871E 25 0117041418 119N 877E 25 0117041500 125N 882E 30 0117041506 133N 893E 30 0117041512 143N 902E 40 0117041518 153N 913E 45