WTIO31 PGTW 160900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (MAARUTHA) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (MAARUTHA) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 160600Z --- NEAR 16.8N 92.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 040 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.8N 92.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 18.9N 94.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 21.1N 96.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 160900Z POSITION NEAR 17.3N 93.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (MAARUTHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 333 NM SOUTH OF CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS WEAKENING CONVECTION WITH WARMING CLOUD TOPS AND INCREASING WIND SHEAR. DESPITE THE DIMINISHING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, A 160351Z METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS THE SURFACE WIND FIELD LARGELY INTACT WITH A LARGE AREA OF 40 TO 45 KNOT WINDS ON BOTH THE WESTERN AND EASTERN FLANKS. BOTH THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, AND IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT IMAGE COMBINED WITH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS). HIGH WIND SHEAR AND LAND INTERACTION WILL HINDER FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND LANDFALL IS EXPECTED SOMETIME IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TC MAARUTHA IS EXPECTED TO FULLY DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 24. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE SYSTEM TRACK, BUT VARIES SLIGHTLY IN THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL. OVERALL THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z, 162100Z AND 170300Z.//