WTIO31 PGTW 160300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (MAARUTHA) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (MAARUTHA) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 160000Z --- NEAR 16.3N 92.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.3N 92.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 18.1N 93.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 19.8N 95.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 160300Z POSITION NEAR 16.8N 92.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (MAARUTHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 223 NM WEST OF YANGON, BURMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED OVERALL CENTRAL CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE WITH THE NORTHERN PORTION BEGINNING TO SHOW ELONGATION AND WARMING TOPS - A SIGN OF INCREASING SHEAR. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A LOW REFLECTIVITY CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 152108Z AMSU MICROWAVE PASS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, THE VWS, FOR NOW, IS OFFSET BY A STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW AND A STORM MOTION THAT IS IN-PHASE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW. ADDITIONALLY, ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXCEPTIONALLY WARM AT OVER 30 CELSIUS. TC 01B IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS BURMA, MAKING LANDFALL NEAR TOUNGUP SHORTLY AFTER TAU 12. THE INTENSITY HAS LIKELY PEAKED; VWS AND LAND INTERACTION WILL NOW PREVAIL AND ERODE THEN FINALLY DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE BY TAU 36. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z, 161500Z AND 162100Z.//