WTIO31 PGTW 152100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 151800Z --- NEAR 15.3N 91.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.3N 91.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 17.2N 92.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 18.8N 94.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 20.3N 95.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 152100Z POSITION NEAR 15.8N 91.7E. TROPICAL (TC) CYCLONE 01B (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM WEST- SOUTHWEST OF YANGON, BURMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS SLIGHTLY DEEPENED EVEN AS THE NORTHERN PORTION BEGINS TO SHOW STRETCHING AND ELONGATION - A SIGN OF INCREASING SHEAR. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A LOW REFLECTIVITY CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 151519Z AMSU MICROWAVE PASS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, THE VWS, FOR NOW, IS OFFSET BY A STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW AND A STORM MOTION THAT IS IN-PHASE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW. ADDITIONALLY, ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXCEPTIONALLY WARM AT OVER 30 CELSIUS. TC 01B IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS BURMA, MAKING LANDFALL NEAR TOUNGUP SHORTLY BEFORE TAU 24. THE SYSTEM WILL PEAK AT 50 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE VWS AND LAND INTERACTION PREVAIL AND ERODE THEN FINALLY DISSIPATE IT BY TAU 36. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z, 160900Z, 161500Z AND 162100Z.//