WTXS32 PGTW 100900

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (ERNIE) WARNING NR 009//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (ERNIE) WARNING NR 009

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   100600Z --- NEAR 18.7S 103.0E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 12 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 18.7S 103.0E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   101800Z --- 19.5S 100.9E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

    ---

REMARKS:

100900Z POSITION NEAR 18.9S 102.5E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (ERNIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 660 NM WEST-

NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD

AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL

SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION

CENTER WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE

SYSTEM, AND SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE

INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS SUPPORTED BY A 100244Z ASCAT PASS

SHOWING 35 KNOT WINDS (WITH ISOLATED 40 KNOTS) ALONG THE SOUTHEAST

PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DEGRADE WITH

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES INCREASING TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND SSTS

DROPPING TO 25C. TC ERNIE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG

THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED STR POSITIONED OVER

NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA. THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO DISSIPATE AND IS

FORECAST TO REACH FULL DISSIPATION BY TAU 12, DUE TO THE PERSISTENT

UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE ARE IN

GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.

THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN

PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF

REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 15

FEET.//