WTPS31 PGTW 262100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (DEBBIE) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (DEBBIE) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 261800Z --- NEAR 18.6S 150.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.6S 150.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 19.0S 149.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 19.6S 148.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 20.1S 146.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 20.8S 145.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 262100Z POSITION NEAR 18.7S 150.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (DEBBIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 277 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL ORGANIZED STORM WITH FLARING CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM. A 261500Z GCOMW1 36GHZ IMAGE REVEALS THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS OFFSET SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND LENDS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS IS SUPPORTED BY MULTI-AGENCY DVORAKS OF T4.0 (65KTS) AND THE LATEST SATCON ESTIMATE OF 68 KNOTS. THE STORM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW WITH LESS ORGANIZED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS ALSO BEGINNING TO ENTRAIN DRY AIR ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE FROM CONTINENTAL AUSTRALIA, EVIDENT IN TOTAL PERCEPTIBLE WATER LOOPS, WHICH HAS SLOWED THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION. TC DEBBIE IS CONTINUING TO TRACK SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST AND A RIDGE POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. THESE TWO RIDGES WILL CONTINUE TO STEER THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHWEST AS IT MAKES LANDFALL SHORTLY AFTER TAU 24, AND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE HOWEVER, AS SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH LAND THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF EASTERN AUSTRALIA WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST TRACK LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270900Z AND 272100Z.//