WTPS31 PGTW 260900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (DEBBIE) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (DEBBIE) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 260600Z --- NEAR 18.3S 151.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S 151.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 18.6S 150.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 19.0S 149.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 19.5S 148.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 20.0S 146.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 20.9S 145.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 21.6S 144.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 260900Z POSITION NEAR 18.4S 151.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (DEBBIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM. A 260545Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE REVEALS TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING, A LARGE MICROWAVE EYE, AND SUPPORTS THE CURRENT JTWC BEST TRACK POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS IS SUPPORTED BY MULTI-AGENCY DVORAKS OF T3.5 (55 TO 70 KNOTS) LATEST SATCON ESTIMATES AROUND 65 KNOTS, AND THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, RECENT TPW IMAGERY SHOWS SOME DRY CONTINENTAL AIR BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM, WHICH HAS SLOWED THE INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. TC DEBBIE HAS BEEN TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD BETWEEN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NER AND A STR TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN UNDER THE SHARED STEERING INFLUENCE OF BOTH FEATURES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WHICH WILL MAINTAIN ITS SOUTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNTIL TC 13P MAKES LANDFALL SHORTLY AFTER TAU 36, ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF STEADY INTENSIFICATION. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS INLAND, THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF RUGGED TERRAIN WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE CYCLONE LEADING TO COMPLETE DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE ON THE FORECAST TRACK LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 262100Z AND 270900Z.//