WTPS31 PGTW 252100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (DEBBIE) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (DEBBIE) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 251800Z --- NEAR 17.9S 151.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S 151.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 18.2S 151.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 18.6S 150.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 19.0S 148.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 19.4S 147.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 20.1S 145.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 21.3S 144.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 252100Z POSITION NEAR 18.0S 151.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (DEBBIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 343 NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 251711Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH AN EYE VISIBLE ON THE MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE AGENCY DVORAKS OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) BASED ON THE PREVIOUS SATCON VALUE OF 64 KTS AND THE STRUCTURAL IMPROVEMENT. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW, BOTH POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD, AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES. TC DEBBIE HAS BEEN TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ALONG A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST AND HAS BEGUN TO SHIFT DIRECTION TO THE WEST DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. THE RIDGE OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA WILL REMAIN AS THE DOMINANT STEERING FEATURE FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAIN FAVORABLE. PEAK INTENSITY WILL OCCUR JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL, WHICH WILL OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER TAU 48. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS INLAND, THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF RUGGED TERRAIN WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE CYCLONE LEADING TO COMPLETE DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE ON THE FORECAST TRACK LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260900Z AND 262100Z.//