WTPS31 PGTW 250900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (DEBBIE) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (DEBBIE) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 250600Z --- NEAR 17.7S 152.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.7S 152.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 18.1S 151.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 18.6S 151.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 18.9S 150.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 19.2S 149.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 19.9S 147.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 20.8S 144.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 22.0S 143.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 250900Z POSITION NEAR 17.8S 152.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (DEBBIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 364 NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 250558Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING, AND A LARGE MICROWAVE EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ABOVE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS ON THE HIGH END OF AGENCY DVORAKS OF T3.0 (45 TO 55 KNOTS) BASED ON THE RAPIDLY IMPROVING STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC DEBBIE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TOWARD A WEAKNESS BETWEEN A NER TO THE EAST AND A STR TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE NER WILL TAKE OVER AS THE DOMINANT STEERING FEATURE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT BEGINS TO BUILD AND MIGRATE WESTWARD, CAUSING TC DEBBIE TO CHANGE COURSE TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS SSTS AND THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAIN EXTREMELY FAVORABLE. PEAK INTENSITY WILL OCCUR JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL, SHORTLY AFTER TAU 48. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS INLAND, THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF LAND INTERACTION WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE CYCLONE LEADING TO ITS COMPLETE DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE ON THE FORECAST TRACK LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 252100Z AND 260900Z.//