WTXS51 PGTW 262100 WARNING ATCG MIL 12S SIO 170326204202 2017032618 12S CALEB 008 01 290 03 SATL 060 T000 158S 0984E 035 R034 060 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 055 NW QD T012 157S 0974E 035 R034 000 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 010 NW QD T024 156S 0963E 030 AMP 012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER 024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (CALEB) WARNING NR 008 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (CALEB) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 261800Z --- NEAR 15.8S 98.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S 98.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 15.7S 97.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 15.6S 96.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 262100Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 98.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (CALEB), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM SOUTHEAST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROADENING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), SHALLOW BANDING, AND DISSIPATING CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS SUPPORTED BY THE INFRARED IMAGERY WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND THE UNRAVELLING OF THE LLCC STRUCTURE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27C) AND NO ORGANIZED UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. TC CALEB IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE STEERING INFLUENCE FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE POOR ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM AND TC 12S IS FORECAST TO BE FULLY DISSIPATED BY TAU 24. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A RECENT SHIFT TO THE NORTH LENDING TO FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270900Z AND 272100Z.// 1217032018 99S 987E 15 1217032100 98S 984E 15 1217032106 97S 980E 20 1217032112 97S 972E 25 1217032118 99S 968E 25 1217032200 103S 973E 25 1217032206 103S 982E 25 1217032212 108S 991E 25 1217032218 112S 996E 25 1217032300 120S1000E 25 1217032306 127S1003E 40 1217032312 131S1004E 40 1217032318 135S1006E 40 1217032400 140S1008E 40 1217032406 143S1008E 40 1217032412 146S1007E 40 1217032418 148S1006E 45 1217032500 151S1004E 45 1217032506 155S1002E 45 1217032512 157S1000E 45 1217032518 159S 998E 45 1217032600 160S 996E 45 1217032606 160S 993E 40 1217032612 159S 987E 40 1217032618 158S 984E 35