WTXS31 PGTW 262100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (CALEB) WARNING NR 008// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (CALEB) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 261800Z --- NEAR 15.8S 98.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S 98.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 15.7S 97.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 15.6S 96.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 15.6S 95.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 15.8S 93.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 262100Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 98.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (CALEB), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM SOUTHEAST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROADENING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), SHALLOW BANDING, AND DISSIPATING CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS SUPPORTED BY THE INFRARED IMAGERY WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND THE UNRAVELLING OF THE LLCC STRUCTURE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27C) AND NO ORGANIZED UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. TC CALEB IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE STEERING INFLUENCE FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE POOR ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM AND TC 12S IS FORECAST TO BE FULLY DISSIPATED BY TAU 24. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A RECENT SHIFT TO THE NORTH LENDING TO FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270900Z AND 272100Z.//