WTXS31 PGTW 260900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (CALEB) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (CALEB) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 260600Z --- NEAR 16.0S 99.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 99.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 16.0S 98.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 16.0S 97.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 16.0S 96.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 16.1S 95.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 16.7S 91.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 260900Z POSITION NEAR 16.0S 99.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (CALEB), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 919 NM WEST- NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 260656Z GPM 36 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A VERY COMPACT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, TIGHTLY CURVED SHALLOW BANDING, AND THE MAINTENANCE OF DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS SUPPORTED BY THE ABOVE MENTIONED IMAGERY WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS AT THE HIGHER END OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES, RANGING FROM T1.5-2.0 (25 TO 40 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOW MARGINAL FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH COOLER (27C) SSTS AND SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED OUTFLOW. TC 12S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A STR TO THE SOUTH, WHICH WILL BE THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DEGRADE, THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 12S IS FORECAST TO ACHIEVE FULL DISSIPATION BY TAU 72. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 262100Z AND 270900Z.//