WTXS31 PGTW 252100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (CALEB) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (CALEB) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 251800Z --- NEAR 16.3S 99.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S 99.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 16.5S 99.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 16.6S 98.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 16.7S 97.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 16.8S 96.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 16.9S 93.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 252100Z POSITION NEAR 16.4S 99.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (CALEB), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH WEAK FLARING CONVECTION DUE TO INTERACTION WITH DRY AIR ENTERING THE SYSTEM ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE. THIS DATA SUPPORTS THE CURRENT JTWC BEST TRACK POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS ABOVE AGENCY DVORAKS BUT IS SUPPORTED BY AN EARLIER SATCON INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 46 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAKENING OUTFLOW ON BOTH THE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WHICH IS ALSO RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WANING CONVECTION. THE STORM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, ALONG WITH MARGINALLY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27C) IN THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FLARING CONVECTION. AS THE STORM CONTINUES TO PULL IN DRY AIR ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE AND THE OUTFLOW CHANNELS BREAK DOWN, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE BEYOND TAU 24. TC CALEB IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WHICH WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT STEERING FEATURE FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AS TO THE STORM TRACK LENDING TO FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260900Z AND 262100Z.//