WTXS31 PGTW 250900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (CALEB) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (CALEB) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 250600Z --- NEAR 15.5S 100.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 100.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 15.8S 99.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 16.1S 99.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 16.2S 98.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 16.2S 97.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 16.0S 96.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 02 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 15.8S 96.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 15.6S 95.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 250900Z POSITION NEAR 15.6S 99.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (CALEB), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 898 NM WEST- NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 250228Z AMSU 89 GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A COMPACT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH TIGHTLY CURVED SHALLOW BANDING, AND FLARING DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THIS DATA SUPPORTS THE CURRENT JTWC BEST TRACK POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS ABOVE AGENCY DVORAKS BUT SUPPORTED BY EARLIER SCATTEROMETRY DATA AND RECENT SATCON/ADT INTENSITY ESTIMATES BETWEEN 40-45 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). WARM SSTS WILL CONTINUE TO PERMIT THE MAINTENANCE OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC. TC CALEB IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT TRANSITIONS TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FROM TAU 24 THROUGH TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TRACKING INTO AN AREA WITH REDUCED VWS ALLOWING FOR SOME FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. AFTER TAU 48, VWS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN WHILE OUTFLOW CHANNELS BECOME CUT-OFF, LEADING TO THE EVENTUAL DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF TC CALEB, HOWEVER THE WESTWARD TRACK BY THE ECMWF AND UKMET SEEM TO MAKE THE MOST SENSE AT THIS POINT BASED ON RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. DUE TO THE BIFURCATION IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 252100Z AND 260900Z.//