WTXS31 PGTW 242100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (CALEB) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (CALEB) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 241800Z --- NEAR 14.9S 100.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S 100.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 15.3S 100.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 15.6S 100.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 15.8S 100.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 15.8S 99.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 15.7S 98.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 15.7S 97.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 15.9S 96.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 242100Z POSITION NEAR 15.0S 100.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (CALEB), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM SOUTHEAST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 241831Z GPM 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST. A 241520Z ASCAT BULLSEYE SHOWS A DEFINED LLCC WITH 40 TO 45 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER FROM THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. THE CURRENT POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ABOVE IMAGERY. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 45 KNOTS, ABOVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.0 - T3.0, BASED ON THE ASCAT PASS AND THE LOW REFLECTIVITY SIGNATURE IN THE GPM IMAGE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL DUE TO WEAK OUTFLOW ALOFT AND MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE AND WILL SUSTAIN THE PERSISTENT CONVECTION. TC CALEB IS TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT TRANSITIONS TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AS THE SYSTEM TURNS WESTWARD, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED ALLOWING THE CYCLONE TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY. BEYOND TAU 24, A BUILDING SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL PROVIDE AN ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL SUPPORTING A SHORT PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION. AFTERWARDS, VWS WILL INCREASE BEGINNING A WEAKENING TREND UNTIL COMPLETE DISSIPATION OVER WATER BY THE END OF THE FORECAST. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPLIT AFTER TAU 24 WITH GFS AND HWRF TAKING THE SYSTEM EASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER, THE REMAINING GUIDANCE TRACKS THE CYCLONE WESTWARD AND SUPPORTS THE CURRENT FORECAST. DUE TO THE BIFURCATION IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z AND 252100Z.//