WTXS31 PGTW 240900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (CALEB) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (CALEB) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 240600Z --- NEAR 14.4S 101.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.4S 101.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 15.0S 101.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 15.2S 101.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 15.4S 101.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 240900Z POSITION NEAR 14.6S 101.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (CALEB), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SYSTEM THAT HAS STRUGGLED OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS WITH LIMITED FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION BEING DISPLACED TO THE WEST LEAVING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER PARTIALLY EXPOSED, AND LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN CURRENT INTENSITY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS), WHICH HAVE BEEN TRENDING LOWER THAN PREVIOUS SCATTEROMETRY DATA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT SHOWING ANY SIGNS OF IMPROVEMENT AS THE EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS STILL A DOMINANT FEATURE INCREASING THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SSTS CURRENTLY SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT NEAR 28 CELSIUS, BUT DECREASE RAPIDLY BEYOND 15 DEGREES SOUTH. CURRENTLY TC CALEB IS TRACKING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-TO-LOW-LEVEL NEAR- EQUATORIAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER JAVA. OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS THE SYSTEM WILL SLOW AS IT ENCOUNTERS A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM WILL ASSUME A QUASI-STATIONARY TRACK BEYOND TAU 24 AND WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO INCREASING WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SSTS DISSIPATING BY TAU 72. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY, HOWEVER, GFS AND HWRF SHOW THE SYSTEM TURNING ABRUPTLY TO THE EAST IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS BUT ALSO DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM SHORTLY THEREAFTER. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL GUIDANCE THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z AND 250900Z.//