WTXS31 PGTW 232100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (CALEB) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (CALEB) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 231800Z --- NEAR 13.7S 101.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.7S 101.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 14.4S 101.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 14.8S 101.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 15.1S 101.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 01 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 15.3S 101.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 00 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 15.4S 101.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 232100Z POSITION NEAR 13.9S 101.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (CALEB), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 269 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE AS THE ASSOCIATED CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED AND REMAINS DISPLACED WESTWARD OF A BROAD AND ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLC IN THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND FROM RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE HIGH END OF OBJECTIVE AND AGENCY DVORAK FIXES AND REFLECTS THE WEAKENED STATE OF THE CYCLONE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF HIGH (25-30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW IS PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE WAYWARD CONVECTION. TC 12S IS TRACKING SLOWLY ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE ISLAND OF JAVA, INDONESIA. INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL FAVOR A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTERWARD, THE STRONG VWS WILL EVENTUALLY PREVAIL AND ERODE THE SYSTEM TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 72. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC MODEL IS WIDELY SPREAD AFTER TAU 12, LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z AND 242100Z.//