WTXS31 PGTW 102100

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 005//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 005

   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   101800Z --- NEAR 16.5S 68.9E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 05 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

   REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S 68.9E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   110600Z --- 18.5S 67.0E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

    ---

REMARKS:

102100Z POSITION NEAR 17.0S 68.4E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 810 NM EAST-

NORTHEAST OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A

SYSTEM THAT IS GENERALLY DISORGANIZED WITH POOR LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION

(LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY

WITH LOW CONFIDENCE AS THE LLC IS DISSIPATING INTO A TROUGH. THE

INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A FIX BY PGTW ESTIMATING T1.5 (25

KTS). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT A TROUGH LOCATED TO THE WEST

OF THE SYSTEM IS CAUSING CONVERGENCE AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND

SHEAR. THESE FACTORS ARE RAPIDLY DISSIPATING THE REMNANTS OF THE

SYSTEM. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST WITHIN THE

CONVERGING FLOW OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED TO THE WEST AND

RIDGING TO THE EAST. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE

JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY

MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT

AT 101800Z IS 6 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ENAWO) FOR

FINAL WARNING (WTXS32 PGTW).//