WTXS32 PGTW 051500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (BLANCHE) WARNING NR 001// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/050151MAR2017// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (BLANCHE) WARNING NR 001 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 051200Z --- NEAR 13.3S 128.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.3S 128.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 14.4S 127.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 15.7S 126.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 051500Z POSITION NEAR 13.6S 128.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (BLANCHE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 126 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP FLARING CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP FROM WYNDHAM WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM ADRM. TC 10S IS IN THE GULF OF JOSEPH BONAPARTE AND IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. IT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL JUST NORTH OF WYNDHAM IN ABOUT 12 HOURS THEN RAPIDLY DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 24. THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE BUT IS UNANIMOUS IN THE LANDFALL TRACK. OVERALL, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ENAWO) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 050200).//