WTXS31 PGTW 070900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ENAWO) WARNING NR 009// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ENAWO) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 070600Z --- NEAR 14.6S 50.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S 50.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 15.2S 49.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 16.4S 47.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 18.2S 46.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 20.7S 46.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 070900Z POSITION NEAR 14.7S 50.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (ENAWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 444 NM NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A 20NM ROUND EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM MADE LANDFALL AT 0800Z AT 14.6N 50.2E, HALFWAY BETWEEN SAMBAVA (14.3S 50.2E) AND ANTALAHA (14.9S 50.2E). SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THESE SITES THUS FAR ONLY INDICATE MAXIMUM WINDS OF 28 KNOTS WITH MINIMUM SLP NEAR 976.5MB. A 070235Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE REVEALS EXCELLENT CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH A BANDING FEATURE WRAPPING INTO A NEAR-SYMMETRIC EYEWALL. DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE MAINTAINED AT T6.5 (127 KNOTS) WHILE SATCON ESTIMATES HAVE RANGED FROM 122 TO 130 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, THEREFORE, THE CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 125 KNOTS. TC 09S IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHWARD AFTER TAU 12 AS THE STR RE-ALIGNS NORTH-SOUTH. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SUPPORTING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TC ENAWO IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT DRIVES INLAND OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MADAGASCAR, AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z AND 080900Z.//