WTXS31 PGTW 060900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ENAWO) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ENAWO) WARNING NR 007 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 060600Z --- NEAR 14.0S 53.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.0S 53.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 14.6S 52.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 15.1S 50.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 15.9S 49.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 16.9S 48.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 20.6S 47.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 12 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 25.4S 47.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 31.0S 50.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 060900Z POSITION NEAR 14.2S 53.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (ENAWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 399 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A HIGHLY-SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH DEEP FEEDER BANDS SPIRALING TIGHTLY INTO A DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 060306Z 36GHZ GPM PASS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES OF T5.0. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A STRONG POLEWARD BIAS. ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) IN THE AREA ARE VERY CONDUCIVE AT 29-30C. THE CYCLONE IS BEING STEERED TOWARD MADAGASCAR BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL SHORTLY AFTER TAU 24. TC ENAWO IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, PEAKING AT 110 KNOTS. AFTERWARDS, INCREASING VWS AND INTERACTION WITH MADAGASCAR WILL CAUSE RAPID DECAY. BY TAU 72, REDUCED TO A 45-KNOT SYSTEM OVER LAND, TC 09S WILL ROUND THE STR AND BEGIN TO RECURVE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD WITH A MOMENTARY PERIOD OF RE-INTENSIFICATION AS IT EXITS BACK INTO THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. HOWEVER, COOLING SSTS AND INCREASING VWS WILL ONCE AGAIN ERODE THE CYCLONE DOWN TO A 35-KNOT SYSTEM BY THE END OF FORECAST. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THERE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT TC 09S WILL DISSIPATE OVER LAND DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z AND 070900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (BLANCHE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE- HOURLY UPDATES.//