WTXS31 PGTW 042100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ENAWO) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ENAWO) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 041800Z --- NEAR 13.7S 56.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.7S 56.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 14.1S 56.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 14.2S 55.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 14.4S 53.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 14.8S 52.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 16.1S 49.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 18.6S 47.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 21.8S 46.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 042100Z POSITION NEAR 13.8S 56.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ENAWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 385 NM NORTH OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH INCREASING SPIRAL BANDING. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE USING EIR AND A PARTIAL 041534Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW OF T4.0. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION, WITH GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AND THE PRESENCE OF A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. TC ENAWO IS LOCATED ALONG A GRADIENT OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WITH STRONGER SHEAR TO THE NORTH (25-30 KNOTS) AND WEAKER SHEAR TO THE SOUTH (10-15 KNOTS). SITUATED BETWEEN TWO RIDGES, TC ENAWO HAS TEMPORARILY DRIFTED SOUTHEASTWARD, BUT THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO RESUME A STEADY TRACK TOWARD THE WEST AND WEST-SOUTHWEST AS THE DEEP-LAYER STEERING FLOW BEGINS TO BE INFLUENCED BY AN AMPLIFYING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST. STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST IN THE NEAR TERM, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION OCCURRING SOMETIME BEFORE A PEAK INTENSITY OF AROUND 110 KNOTS IS REACHED NEAR TAU 48. LANDFALL IN MADAGASCAR IS EXPECTED BY TAU 72, FOLLOWED BY RAPID WEAKENING OVER RUGGED TERRAIN. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHIFT WESTWARD, SO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WAS NUDGED SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE WEST AS WELL. OVERALL, MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LANDFALL IN MADAGASCAR AND SUBSEQUENT RECURVATURE TO THE SOUTH. THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST, BUT STILL WITH SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF LANDFALL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z AND 052100Z. //