WTXS31 PGTW 032100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ENAWO) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ENAWO) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 031800Z --- NEAR 13.1S 56.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.1S 56.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 13.6S 55.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 13.9S 55.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 14.1S 55.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 14.5S 54.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 15.1S 52.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 16.3S 50.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 18.7S 49.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 032100Z POSITION NEAR 13.2S 56.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ENAWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 424 NM NORTH OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES BUILDING CONVECTION WITH INCREASING SYMMETRY OVER A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 031739Z ASCAT PASS REVEALS A WELL DEFINED CENTER SUPPORTING THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE, AND PROVIDES INITIAL WIND STRUCTURE MEASUREMENTS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES, AND REPRESENTS THE RECENT INTENSIFICATION TREND. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH DUAL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW AND SLIGHTLY IMPROVED VWS CONDITIONS, AS STORM MOTION HAS ALIGNED WITH THE SHEAR VECTOR. 29-30 DEGREE SSTS ALSO SUPPORTS FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. TC 09S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THE COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCES ARE RESULTING IN SLOW FORWARD MOTION. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS INDICATE THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM; HOWEVER, THERE IS DISAGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE. THE ECMWF MODEL IS FORECASTING A STRONG RIDGE TO TAKE 09S WESTWARD INTO MADAGASCAR; WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE FORECASTS A WEAKER RIDGE SCENARIO, WITH ENAWO TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 72 AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE, AND IN RESPONSE TO A POOL OF HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WATERS OFF THE EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR. IN THE EXTENDED RANGE, LAND INTERACTION WILL BEGIN TO OFFSET FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SLOWED DOWN AND SHIFTED WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE INITIAL WEAK STEERING FLOW AND A PERSISTENT WESTWARD SHIFT IN NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD AMONG MODELS, PARTICULARLY THE ECMWF. ADDITIONALLY, THESE TRACK DIFFERENCES COULD RESULT IN A LARGE CHANGE IN FORECAST INTENSITY, DUE TO IMPACT OF POSSIBLE LANDFALL TIMING. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z AND 042100Z.//