WTIO30 FMEE 070019



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 19/6/20162017

1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE  6  (ENAWO)



2.A POSITION 2017/03/07 AT 0000 UTC:

WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.7 S / 51.5 E

(FOURTEEN    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY ONE    DECIMAL

FIVE   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.0/S 0.0/6 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 936 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 105 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :24 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 260 SE: 370 SW: 300 NW: 260

34 KT NE: 190 SE: 300 SW: 240 NW: 190

48 KT NE: 150 SE: 170 SW: 150 NW: 150

64 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 90



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 1100 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2017/03/07 12 UTC: 15.3 S / 50.0 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, OVERLAND

DEPRESSION

24H: 2017/03/08 00 UTC: 16.0 S / 49.0 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, OVERLAND

DEPRESSION

36H: 2017/03/08 12 UTC: 17.4 S / 47.9 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, OVERLAND

DEPRESSION

48H: 2017/03/09 00 UTC: 19.3 S / 47.1 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, OVERLAND

DEPRESSION

60H: 2017/03/09 12 UTC: 21.2 S / 46.8 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, DISSIPATING





2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :







2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=CI=6.0+



SINCE 2130UTC, THE EYE IS LESS WELL DEFINED IN IR IMAGERY AND

CONVECTIVE COLD RING EVOLUES NOTABLY. A ERC IS MAY BE STARTED,

JUSTIFYING PROBABLY STAGING THE INTENSITY.



THE STEERING FLOW ALLOW TO MAINTAIN A TRACK TOWARDS WEST-SOUTHWEST

WITH A RELATIVELY CONSTANT SPEED BEFORE THE LANDFALL, EXPECTED AT

MIDDAY OF TUESDAY ON MADAGASCAR. THEN, ENAWO SHOULD FOLLOW A

PARABOLIC TRACK SOUTHWARDS, BECAUSE OF THE WEAKENING OF THE

MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE ON MADAGASCAR. RESIDUAL VORTEX SHOULD TRANSIT

ON LAND TOWARDS SOUTH BEFORE ITS PROGRESSIVE DISSIPATION IN THE

MIDDLE OF WEEK.



THE GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS PERSIST BUT A SLIGHT EASTERLY UPPER

CONSTRAINT MAY PREVENT ENAWO FROM REACHING THE VERY INTENSE STAGE

BEFORE THE FINAL APPROACH OF MADAGASCAR AT THE MIDDAY. TEMPORARY

REINFORCEMENT OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ON LAND NEAR THE LANDFALL

AREA.



ENAWO IS A VERY DANGEROUS CYCLONE, THREATENING THE NORTH-EAST OF

MADAGASCAR. NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT

OVER SEVERAL RUNS TO SUGGEST A LANDFALL OVER THE MASAOLA PENINSULA

SOUTH OF ANTALAHA AT THE MIDDAY. ANTONGIL BAY IS MORE LIKELY TO

UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE. IT IS EXPECTED TO REACH 3-4 METERS

NEAR MAROANTSETRA BUT CLOSER TO 1 METER SOUTH OF ANTALAHA AND NEAR

ANTANAMBE.=