WTIO30 FMEE 061839



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/6/20162017

1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE  6  (ENAWO)



2.A POSITION 2017/03/06 AT 1800 UTC:

WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.4 S / 52.4 E

(FOURTEEN    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO    DECIMAL

FOUR   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.0/D 0.5/6 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 938 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 105 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :30 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 260 SE: 370 SW: 300 NW: 260

34 KT NE: 190 SE: 300 SW: 240 NW: 190

48 KT NE: 150 SE: 170 SW: 150 NW: 150

64 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 90



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 1100 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2017/03/07 06 UTC: 15.1 S / 50.8 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

24H: 2017/03/07 18 UTC: 15.7 S / 49.7 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

36H: 2017/03/08 06 UTC: 16.8 S / 48.5 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, OVERLAND

DEPRESSION

48H: 2017/03/08 18 UTC: 18.4 S / 47.5 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, OVERLAND

DEPRESSION

60H: 2017/03/09 06 UTC: 20.3 S / 46.9 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, DISSIPATING





2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :







2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=CI=6.0+



OVER THE PAST HOURS, THE EYE PATTERN IS SUSTAINED WITH WELL SYMETRIC

AND COLD RING. ENAWO  INTENSITY CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY. PA RIPHERAL

CONVECTIVE CLOUDS CONCERN NOW MADAGASCAR COAST.



THE STEERING FLOW DOESN'T EVOLVE AND SHOULD MAINTAIN A TRACK TOWARDS

WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH A RELATIVELY CONSTANT SPEED BEFORE THE LANDFALL,

EXPECTED AT MIDDAY OF TUESDAY ON MADAGASCAR. THEN, ENAWO SHOULD

FOLLOW A PARABOLIC TRACK SOUTHWARDS, BECAUSE OF THE WEAKENING OF THE

MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE ON MADAGASCAR. RESIDUAL VORTEX SHOULD TRANSIT

ON LAND TOWARDS SOUTH BEFORE ITS PROGRESSIVE DISSIPATION IN THE

MIDDLE OF WEEK.



THE GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS UP TO TUESDAY SHOULD ALLOW THE

SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL THE FINAL APPROACH OF

MADAGASCAR. HOWEVER A SLIGHT EASTERLY UPPER CONSTRAINT MAY PREVENT

ENAWO FROM REACHING THE VERY INTENSE STAGE.



ENAWO IS NOW A VERY DANGEROUS CYCLONE, THREATENING THE NORTH-EAST OF

MADAGASCAR. NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT

OVER SEVERAL RUNS TO SUGGEST A LANDFALL OVER THE MASAOLA PENINSULA

SOUTH OF ANTALAHA TOMORROW. THE LANDFALL TIMING REMAINS THE SAME NEAR

MIDDAY, WITH LITTLE UNCERTAINTY IN NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. ANTONGIL BAY

IS MORE LIKELY TO UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE. IT IS EXPECTED TO

REACH 3-4 METERS NEAR MAROANTSETRA BUT CLOSER TO 1 METER SOUTH OF

ANTALAHA AND NEAR ANTANAMBE.=