WTIO30 FMEE 061321



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/6/20162017

1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE  6  (ENAWO)



2.A POSITION 2017/03/06 AT 1200 UTC:

WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.1 S / 53.1 E

(FOURTEEN    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE    DECIMAL

ONE   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 1.0/24 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 954 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :37 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 260 SE: 370 SW: 300 NW: 260

34 KT NE: 190 SE: 300 SW: 240 NW: 190

48 KT NE: 150 SE: 170 SW: 150 NW: 150

64 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 90



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2017/03/07 00 UTC: 14.7 S / 51.5 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

24H: 2017/03/07 12 UTC: 15.4 S / 50.1 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

36H: 2017/03/08 00 UTC: 16.3 S / 48.9 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, OVERLAND

DEPRESSION

48H: 2017/03/08 12 UTC: 17.5 S / 47.9 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, OVERLAND

DEPRESSION

60H: 2017/03/09 00 UTC: 19.2 S / 47.1 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, OVERLAND

DEPRESSION

72H: 2017/03/09 12 UTC: 21.2 S / 46.9 E, MAX WIND=000 , OVERLAND

DEPRESSION



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :







2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=CI=5.5



OVER THE PAST HOURS, THE EYE PATTERN BECAME WELL DEFINED WITH A COLD

RING. ENAWO  INTENSITY WAS THUS UPGRADED TO INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE.

0854Z AMRS2 37 COLOR DATA CONFIRM THE IMPROVEMENT (MORE SYMMETRIC AND

SMALLER EYE) IN COMPARISON WITH 0217Z WINDSAT. ENAWO STARTED TO MOVE

WEST-SOUT-WESTWARDS.





THE MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE OVER SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR CONTINUES TO

ORIENT THE TRACK IN A GENERAL DIRECTION TOWARDS WEST-SOUTHWEST. THIS

TRACK WILL MAINTAIN WITH A RELATIVELY CONSTANT SPEED BEFORE THE

LANDFALL, EXPECTED TOMMORROW ON MADAGASCAR. THEN, ENAWO SHOULD FOLLOW

A PARABOLIC TRACK SOUTHWARDS, BECAUSE OF THE WEAKENING OF THE

MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE ON MADAGASCAR. RESIDUAL VORTEX SHOULD TRANSIT

ON LAND TOWARDS SOUTH AND DISSIPATE.



THE GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (EXCELLENT UPPER DIVERGENCE, HIGH

OHC ...) UP TO TOMORROW SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO CONTINUE ITS

INTENSIFICATION UNTIL THE FINAL APPROACH OF MADAGASCAR. HOWEVER A

SLIGHT EASTERLY UPPER CONSTRAINT MAY PREVENT ENAWO FROM REACHING THE

VERY INTENSE STAGE.



ENAWO IS NOW A VERY DANGEROUS CYCLONE, THREATENING THE NORTH-EAST OF

MADAGASCAR. NPW ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER SEVERAL RUNS TO

SUGGEST A LANDFALL OVER THE MASAOLA PENINSULA SOUTH OF ANTALAHA

TOMORROW. THE LANDFALL TIMING REMAINS THE SAME NEAR MIDDAY, WITH

LITTLE UNCERTAINTY IN NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. ANTONGIL BAY IS MORE LIKELY

TO UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE. IT IS EXPECTED TO REACH 3-4

METERS NEAR MAROANTSETRA BUT CLOSER TO 1 METER SOUTH OF ANTALAHA AND

NEAR ANTANAMBE.=