WTIO30 FMEE 060641



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/6/20162017

1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE  6  (ENAWO)



2.A POSITION 2017/03/06 AT 0600 UTC:

WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.9 S / 53.9 E

(THIRTEEN    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE    DECIMAL

NINE   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : WEST 5 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.0/S 0.0/12 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 969 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 75 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :46 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 240 SE: 370 SW: 300 NW: 240

34 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 260 NW: 190

48 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 130

64 KT NE: 70 SE: 80 SW: 80 NW: 70



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 900 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2017/03/06 18 UTC: 14.5 S / 52.3 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

24H: 2017/03/07 06 UTC: 15.1 S / 50.8 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

36H: 2017/03/07 18 UTC: 15.8 S / 49.5 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

48H: 2017/03/08 06 UTC: 17.0 S / 48.2 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, OVERLAND

DEPRESSION

60H: 2017/03/08 18 UTC: 18.3 S / 47.2 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, OVERLAND

DEPRESSION

72H: 2017/03/09 06 UTC: 19.8 S / 46.8 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, OVERLAND

DEPRESSION



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :







2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=4.5 CI=5.0-



OVER THE PAST HOURS, THE EYE PATTERN MAINTAINED EVEN IF IT IS STILL

ILL-DEFINED AND SHREDDED. LAST MICROWAVE DATA (AMSR2 2124Z AND GPM

0306Z) SHOW THAT AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE MAY HAVE OCCURRED

OVERNIGHT. THUS INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO RESUME IN THE

FOLLOWING HOURS. ENAWO INTENSITY WAS REVISED DOWNWARDS THANKS TO THE

COMPLETE LAST NIGHT ASCAT SWATH.



THE MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE OVER SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR CONTINUES TO

ORIENT THE TRACK IN A GENERAL DIRECTION TOWARDS WEST-SOUTHWEST. THIS

TRACK WILL MAINTAIN WITH A RELATIVELY CONSTANT SPEED BEFORE THE

LANDFALL, WHICH IS ESTIMATED ON TUESDAY ON MADAGASCAR. THEN, ENAWO

SHOULD FOLLOW A PARABOLIC TRACK SOUTHWARDS, BECAUSE OF THE WEAKENING

OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE ON MADAGASCAR. RESIDUAL VORTEX SHOULD

TRANSIT ON LAND TOWARDS SOUTH AND DISSIPATE.



THE GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (WEAK WINDSHEAR, HIGH OHC ...) UP

TO TOMORROW SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO CONTINUE ITS INTENSIFICATION

UNTIL THE FINAL APPROACH OF MADAGASCAR IN STAGE OF INTENSE TROPICAL

CYCLONE.



NPW APPEAR FAIRLY CONSTANT OVER SEVERAL RUNS TO SUGGEST A LANDFALL

OVER THE MASAOLA PENINSULA SOUTH OF ANTALAHA TOMORROW. THE LANDFALL

TIMING BECOMES MORE PRECISE WITH A GOOD AGREEMENT AROUND MIDDAY.

ANTONGIL BAY IS MORE LIKELY TO UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE. IT IS

EXPECTED TO REACH 3-4 METERS NEAR MAROANTSETRA BUT ONLY 1 METER SOUTH

OF ANTALAHA.=