WTIO30 FMEE 051750



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/6/20162017

1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE  6  (ENAWO)



2.A POSITION 2017/03/05 AT 1200 UTC:

WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.0 S / 55.6 E

(FOURTEEN    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FIVE    DECIMAL

SIX   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/S 0.0/6 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 970 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :24 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 230 SE: 370 SW: 190 NW: 280

34 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SW: 110 NW: 150

48 KT NE: 60 SE: 80 SW: 60 NW: 70

64 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SW: 20 NW: 20



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1500 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2017/03/06 00 UTC: 14.3 S / 54.7 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

24H: 2017/03/06 12 UTC: 14.7 S / 53.2 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

36H: 2017/03/07 00 UTC: 15.2 S / 51.7 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

48H: 2017/03/07 12 UTC: 15.8 S / 50.4 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

60H: 2017/03/08 00 UTC: 16.5 S / 49.2 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, OVERLAND

DEPRESSION

72H: 2017/03/08 12 UTC: 17.9 S / 48.0 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, OVERLAND

DEPRESSION



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2017/03/09 12 UTC: 21.7 S / 46.7 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, OVERLAND

DEPRESSION

120H: 2017/03/10 12 UTC: 24.9 S / 46.4 E, MAX WIND=015 KT,

DISSIPATING



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=CI=5.0



DURING LAST HOURS, THE CYCLONE CONTINUES ITS INTENSIFICATION AND ITS

EYE SEEMS BETTER DEFINED AND WARMER BY LAST IMAGERY. THE

WEST-SOUTHWESTERN MOVEMENT IS NOW WELL DEFINED.



THE MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE OVER SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR CONTINUES TO

ORIENT THE TRACK IN A GENERAL DIRECTION TOWARDS WEST-SOUTHWEST. THIS

TRACK WILL MAINTAIN WITH A RELATIVELY CONSTANT SPEED BEFORE THE

LANDFALL, WHICH IS ESTIMATED AT TUESDAY EVENING ON MADAGASCAR. AFTER,

MOVING SHOULD FOLLOW A PARABOLIC TRACK SOUTHWARDS, BECAUSE OF THE

WEAKENING OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE ON MADAGASCAR. RESIDUAL VORTEX

SHOULD TRANSIT ON LAND TOWARDS SOUTH AND DISSIPATE.



THE CURRENT DISPLACEMENT OF CYCLONE ENAWO AND THE GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL

CONDITIONS (WEAK WINDSHEAR, HIGH OHC ...) DURING THE NEXT DAYS SHOULD

ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO CONTINUE INTENSIFICATION UNTIL THE FINAL APPROACH

OF MADAGASCAR IN STAGE OF INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE.=