WTIO30 FMEE 041919



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/6/20162017

1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM  6  (ENAWO)



2.A POSITION 2017/03/04 AT 1800 UTC:

WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.8 S / 56.7 E

(THIRTEEN    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX    DECIMAL

SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT :   QUASI-STATIONARY



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 978 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :46 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 260 SE: 310 SW: 350 NW: 300

34 KT NE: 170 SE: 160 SW: 190 NW: 190

48 KT NE: 90 SE: 0 SW: 90 NW: 90





7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1200 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2017/03/05 06 UTC: 14.1 S / 55.7 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

24H: 2017/03/05 18 UTC: 14.4 S / 54.6 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

36H: 2017/03/06 06 UTC: 14.6 S / 53.0 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

48H: 2017/03/06 18 UTC: 14.9 S / 51.2 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

60H: 2017/03/07 06 UTC: 15.2 S / 49.8 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

72H: 2017/03/07 18 UTC: 16.1 S / 48.6 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, OVERLAND

DEPRESSION



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2017/03/08 18 UTC: 18.7 S / 47.0 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, OVERLAND

DEPRESSION

120H: 2017/03/09 18 UTC: 22.7 S / 46.4 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, OVERLAND

DEPRESSION



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=CI=4.0-



ENAWO SHOW A PRETTY IMPRESSIVE EMBEDDED CENTER PATTERN ASSOCIATED

WITH EXTREMELY COLD CLOUD TOPS. THE LACK OF GOOD MW FIX THIS EVENING

HAS NOT ALLOW TO DEPICT THE IMPROVEMENT OF THE STRUCTURE WITHIN THE

INNER CORE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS STILL ON THE LOW SIDE OF DVORAK

ESTIMATES (4.0 AND 4.5 RESP. FROM PGTW AND SAB OR 57-68 KT 10 MIN

WINDS) BUT MATCH THE 55 KT (10 MIN WINDS) ESTIMATE FROM SATCON AT

1502Z.



THE LACK OF GOOD FIX ENHANCE UNCERTAINTY ON THE REAL POSITION OF

ENAWO (RELOCATED SLIGHTLY SOUTH-EASTWARDS COMPARED TO THE REAL TIME

ESTIMATE AT 12 UTC), BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST NOT MUCH CHANGE.

LATER TONIGHT OR TOMORROW MORNING, THE TRACK SHOULD RESUME IN A

GENERAL WESTWARDS TO WEST SOUTHWESTWARDS MOTION AS A MID-LEVEL

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED OVER SOUTH AFRICA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY

EXTEND SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR.

AT LONG RANGE, THUS STEERING FLOW MAY DECAY, INDUCING A MORE

PARABOLIC TRACK TOWARDS SOUTH. A LANDFALL OVER THE EASTERN COAST OF

MADAGASCAR APPEARS TO BE INCREASING LIKELY, WITH A POTENTIAL LANDFALL

TIME MONDAY NIGHT.



UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE SHOULD REMAIN QUITE EFFICIENT SPECIALLY OVER

THE EQUATORWARDS SIDE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, ALLOWING GRADUAL

INTENSIFICATION UNTIL LANDFALL WITH AN EXPECTED DECREASING EASTERLY

CONSTRAINT.=