WTIO30 FMEE 040813 CCA ***************CORRECTIVE************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/6/20162017 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (ENAWO) 2.A POSITION 2017/03/04 AT 0600 UTC: WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.6 S / 56.6 E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH 2 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 991 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :46 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 170 NW: 190 34 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 130 NW: 130 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2017/03/04 18 UTC: 14.0 S / 56.4 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 24H: 2017/03/05 06 UTC: 14.2 S / 55.7 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 36H: 2017/03/05 18 UTC: 14.6 S / 54.7 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 48H: 2017/03/06 06 UTC: 14.7 S / 53.5 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 60H: 2017/03/06 18 UTC: 14.8 S / 51.5 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 72H: 2017/03/07 06 UTC: 15.0 S / 50.1 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK : 96H: 2017/03/08 06 UTC: 17.4 S / 47.6 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION 120H: 2017/03/09 06 UTC: 22.6 S / 46.4 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=CI=3.5- ACCORDING TO THE LAST MW DATA SSMIS DOF 0257Z AND GMI OF 0316Z, THE LOW LEVEL ORGANISATION HAS CLEARLY IMPORVED, AND CLASSICAL IMAGERY SHOWS A CURVED BAND PATTERN OF MORE THAN A HALF TOUR, WITH DEEP CONVECTION ALSO LOCATED IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CERCLE. CONFIRMED BY THE CIMSS THE EASTERN CONSTRAINT HAS WEAKENED, BUT REMAIN MORERATE(20KT AT 03Z). ENAWO STARTED TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE TROPICAL RIDGE THAT DROVE THE TRACK. THE MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SIMILAR DURING THE FOLLOWING HOURS. ON LAST NIGHT, THE TRACK SHOULD RESUME WESTWARDS AS A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED OVER SOUTH AFRICA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY EXTEND SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR. AT LONG RANGE, THUS STEERING FLOW MAY DECAY, INDUCING A MORE PARABOLIC TRACK TOWARDS SOUTH. WITHIN THE LATEST AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE, THE WESTWARD SHIFT TREND CONTINUES (GFS).THUS A LANDFALL OVER THE EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR APPEARS TO BE LIKELY. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON THE LOCATION AND THE TIMING OF THE LANDING, WITH VERY DIFFERENT TRACK SPEED. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE TWO SCENARIOS. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE REMAIN VERY GOOD IN THE WEST PART AND ALSO IN THE SOUTH PART, SO THE SYSTEM GOES ON INTENSIFYING, AS THE EASTERN CONSTRAINT IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESSIVELY WEAKEN TODAY BY THE END OF THE WEEK END, THE UPPER CONSTRAINT MAY DECREASE, WITH STILL A STRONG POTENTIAL, THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY QUICKER. IT IS EXPECTED TO REACH TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY BEFORE MONDAY AND COME CLOSER TO THE NEXT LEVEL BEFORE LANDFALLING.=