WTIO30 FMEE 030702



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/6/20162017

1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM  6  (ENAWO)



2.A POSITION 2017/03/03 AT 0600 UTC:

WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.8 S / 57.0 E

(TWELVE    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN    DECIMAL

ZERO   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/6 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :46 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 110 SE: 0 SW: 240 NW: 280

34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 90 NW: 90







7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1400 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2017/03/03 18 UTC: 13.2 S / 55.9 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM

24H: 2017/03/04 06 UTC: 13.6 S / 55.7 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM

36H: 2017/03/04 18 UTC: 13.9 S / 55.8 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

48H: 2017/03/05 06 UTC: 14.2 S / 55.5 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

60H: 2017/03/05 18 UTC: 14.7 S / 54.6 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

72H: 2017/03/06 06 UTC: 15.0 S / 53.6 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2017/03/07 06 UTC: 16.0 S / 51.4 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

120H: 2017/03/08 06 UTC: 18.4 S / 50.0 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=CI=2.5+



OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS SHIFT TOWARDS A CURVED

BAND  PATTERN THAT WRAPS 0.5AO AROUND THE LLCC (A BIT MORE

SOMETIMES). PARTIAL ASCAT-B DATA OF THIS MORNIG SUGGEST THAT GALE

FORCE WINDS ARE ONLY WITHIN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.



THE CURRENT TRACK IS DRIVEN BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS RIDGE SHOULD

GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE WEEK-END, LEAVING THE SYSTEM DRIFTING

WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT ( A SOUTHWARDS DRIFT IS POSSIBLE).

IN THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, THE AVAILABLE MODELS SEEM TO CONVERGE

TOWARD A MORE ZONAL TRACK AND A DELAYED PARABOLIC TRACK, BRINGING THE

SYSTEM SIGNIFICANTLY CLOSER OF THE EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR.



AS THE LIGHT UPPER SHEAR SHOULD DISAPPEAR BY THIS EVENING, THE

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE THEN ALL CONDUCIVE FOR A STEADY

INTENSIFICATION. THE UPPER DIVERGENCE SHOULD REMAIN WELL ESTABLISHED.

FURTHERMORE, THE SYSTEM SHOULD ONLY TRACK OVER WATERS WITH HIGH

ENERGY CONTENT.



THE THREAT IS INCREASING FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR. THE

WORST CASE SCENARII SUGGEST A POSSIBLE LANDFALL EARLY NEXT WEEK.=