WTPS31 PGTW 220300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (EIGHT) WARNING NR 001// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (EIGHT) WARNING NR 001 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 220000Z --- NEAR 21.2S 172.8W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 30 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.2S 172.8W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 24.2S 167.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 24 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 27.1S 163.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 220300Z POSITION NEAR 22.0S 171.4W. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (EIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 431 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 30 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 212113Z ASCAT PASS INDICATE THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION HAS OCCURRED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ASCAT DATA AND RECENT FIXES FROM KNES AND PGTW. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 40 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH MULTIPLE AGENCY DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND ASCAT WIND OBSERVATIONS OF 35-40 KNOTS NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER. STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS, UP TO 45 KNOTS, ARE PRESENT ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION TC 08P IS TRACKING RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN AN EXTENSION OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THE NORTHEAST AND A DEEP-LAYERED MID-LATITUDE TROUGH SITUATED TO THE SOUTHWEST. PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS INDUCING STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WHILE STORM MOTION IN THE DIRECTION OF THIS FLOW IS MINIMIZING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE CIRCULATION CENTER. HOWEVER, SHEAR HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT TO DISPLACE A LARGE PORTION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. TC 08P IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE CURRENT STEERING ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE SYSTEM WILL INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 12, AND COMPLETE THE TRANSITION TO A FULLY EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY TAU 24. INTENSITY SHOULD REMAIN APPROXIMATELY STEADY DURING THE TRANSITION DUE TO A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE PATTERN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (BART) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//