WTXS31 PGTW 151500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (DINEO) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (DINEO) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 151200Z --- NEAR 23.5S 36.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 23.5S 36.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 23.6S 34.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 23.3S 32.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 151500Z POSITION NEAR 23.5S 35.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (DINEO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM WEST- SOUTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 151000Z 89 GHZ AMSR2 IMAGE DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED SPIRAL SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING AND A NEWLY FORMED EYE FEATURE PLACING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 70 KNOTS IS BASED ON BOTH SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FAVORABLE SUPPORTING NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 CELSIUS. HOWEVER FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS UNLIKELY AS TC DINEO IS ACCELERATING TOWARD THE COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE AND LAND INTERACTION WILL SOON DISRUPT THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD. A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST IS STEERING THE SYSTEM ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AND LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SIX HOURS. A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL ASSUME STEERING OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS DRIVING THE SYSTEM FURTHER INLAND. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. OVERALL THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z.//