WTXS31 PGTW 141500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (DINEO) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (DINEO) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 141200Z --- NEAR 22.3S 38.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.3S 38.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 22.9S 37.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 23.3S 36.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 23.4S 34.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 23.2S 33.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 22.5S 29.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 141500Z POSITION NEAR 22.5S 38.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (DINEO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 78 NM WEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING TIGHTLY WOUND SPIRAL SYSTEM WITH RELATIVELY SHALLOW BANDING ON THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERIES. A 141159Z 85 GHZ SSMI IMAGE SHOWS AN EYE FEATURE STRUGGLING TO FORM LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS BASED ON SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES REPORTING T3.5 (55 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VERY FAVORABLE WITH THE UPPER LEVELS SUPPORTING DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SSTS ARE ALSO EXTREMELY WARM IN EXCESS OF 30 CELSIUS. TC DINEO WILL HAVE A SHORT WINDOW TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS. CURRENTLY A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST IS STEERING TC DINEO ON A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE IS ANTICIPATED NEAR TAU 30. AS THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL ANOTHER RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL DRIVE THE SYSTEM FURTHER INLAND. THE SYSTEM WILL FULLY DISSIPATE OVERLAND BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH THE FORECAST TRACK PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. OVERALL THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z AND 151500Z.//