WTXS31 PGTW 131500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/121251ZFEB2017// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (DINEO) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 131200Z --- NEAR 21.5S 39.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.5S 39.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 21.7S 39.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 22.1S 38.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 22.5S 37.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 23.0S 36.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 23.3S 34.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 22.9S 31.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 131500Z POSITION NEAR 21.6S 39.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (DINEO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 48 NM NORTH- NORTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LLCC. A 131012Z GCOM-W1 COMPOSITE IMAGE SHOWS THE BULK OF DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH A DEFINED CENTER ON THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF THE PRIMARY BAND, WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM EUROPA ISLAND (61972) SHOWING NORTHEAST WINDS AT 46 KNOTS, AND A 130622Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 35 TO 40 KNOT WINDS. OVERALL, THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SST NEAR 30C. TC 05S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK LOW-TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). THE STR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK AS A BROAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS TO THE SOUTH NEAR TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED STR IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE SOUTH, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO TURN WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. TC DINEO WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE NEAR TAU 60 AND WILL DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TC 05S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY STEADILY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS BY TAU 36 THEN WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT APPROACHES LAND AND TRACKS INLAND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z AND 141500Z. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 121300).//